NFL Week 11 early odds: Vikings home underdogs to Cowboys, Chiefs touchdown favorites vs. Chargers

There was no shortage of drama to come out of Week 10 in the NFL. We arguably witnessed the game of the year as the Vikings upset the Bills in Buffalo with an overtime thriller, Green Bay upset the Cowboys at Lambeau Field, and Jeff Saturday notched his first win in his first game as the interim head coach of the Colts. And that was just the tip of the iceberg in what was a wild weekend in the NFL. With that in mind, Week 11 has a lot to live up to. 

While there is still one more game to go on Monday night, it's never too early to look at what's to come in Week 11. Below, we'll take our first glimpse of these matchups and get our impression of the opening lines for these games to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers see coming out on top. 

Note: The Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Jacksonville Jaguars are on the bye in Week 11.

Week 11 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Titans (6-3) at Packers (4-6), Thursday 

Featured Game | Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans

Opening line: Packers -1.5

There finally seems to be some confidence in the Packers. This line has since moved to 2.5 points after Green Bay was able to upset the Cowboys at Lambeau Field on Sunday in a game where the passing game did look much improved. Aaron Rodgers looked Christian Watson's way a number of times and the rookie wideout rewarded him with three touchdown receptions. Meanwhile, Tennessee welcomed back Ryan Tannehill with a win over the Broncos where the quarterback threw two touchdowns. The Titans are 7-0 in their last seven games and are 4-0 ATS on the road in their last four games. As for the Packers, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  

Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears

Opening line: Falcons -4.5

This line has since bumped down to Falcons -3 and it wouldn't be too surprising to even see it fall below that critical number by the time we reach kickoff. That's largely due to the stellar play from Justin Fields over the last few games. The 2021 first-round pick has broken out in a big way and just had a Week 10 performance where he rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns and passed for 167 yards and two scores. While that wasn't enough to get the win against Detroit, Chicago is showing us that they are a dangerous offense all of a sudden. Meanwhile, Atlanta looks like it may be on the decline after a largely lifeless outing against the Panthers last Thursday where Marcus Mariota didn't play well. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS over their last four games and are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 matchups at home. 

Panthers (3-7) at Ravens (6-3) 

Featured Game | Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers

Opening line: Ravens -12.5

This line currently sits at Ravens -12 but it will be interesting to see how much -- if at all -- this moves following the news that Baker Mayfield will get the start for Carolina after P.J. Walker suffered a high ankle sprain against Atlanta. Mayfield was 1-4 SU as a starter for the Panthers this season and is 3-5 SU against Baltimore in his career. As a team, Carolina is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games. Meanwhile, the Ravens are coming off their bye and should be well-rested for this head-to-head. That said, that hasn't been as much of an advantage as you may imagine as of late. In their last five games following a bye, the Ravens are 1-4 ATS. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  

Browns (3-6) at Bills (6-3) 

Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns

Opening line: Bills -6.5

This number has since jumped up to Bills -9 and it'll be curious to see if this moves into the double-digits. Buffalo dropped a heartbreaker to the Vikings at home in overtime after having a number of opportunities to ice the game with a win. However, a critical Josh Allen fumble at his own goal line opened the door for Minnesota to make the comeback. While he did commit three turnovers in the loss, Allen did look good after his status was in question all week due to an elbow injury. It wouldn't come as too much of a shock if he is limited throughout the week again to nurse that injury. As for the Browns, they were shelled 39-17 by the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday and gave up nearly 500 yards of total offense. Buffalo has beaten up inferior opponents, owning a 10-2-2 ATS record in their last 14 games against clubs with a losing record. They are also 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. 

Featured Game | Houston Texans vs. Washington Commanders

Opening line: Commanders -2

This line has moved to Commanders -2.5 but we likely won't see any significant movement until after Washington takes on the Eagles on Monday night. The Texans couldn't contain Saquon Barkley in Week 10 as the Giants back rushed for 152 yards and a touchdown. Houston is 2-2 ATS this season at home but is taking on a plucky Commanders team that is 4-1-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.  

Eagles (8-0) at Colts (4-5-1) 

Featured Game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Opening line: Eagles -10.5

Philadelphia is now a 9.5-point favorite on the road against Indy, which shocked the NFL on Sunday as interim head coach Jeff Saturday was able to notch his first win over the Raiders. Just as surprising as Saturday's win in his first games as the Colts coach, was the decision to start Matt Ryan after it was assumed Sam Ehlinger would be the club's QB1 going forward. That switch to Ryan from Ehlinger may have been enough to move this line a point. While Philly still has a home matchup with the Commanders to focus on, it is worth pointing out that they are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. 

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

Opening line: Patriots -5

A sneaky huge matchup for the AFC playoff picture is on deck this Sunday at Gillette Stadium and the Patriots are now a 3.5-point favorite. Both of these AFC East rivals were on the bye in Week 10 but just went head-to-head back in Week 8 when New England beat the Jets 22-17 at MetLife Stadium. In that game, Zach Wilson threw three interceptions. The Jets are a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this season and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. New England is also 5-1 ATS over their last six games and is 2-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. 

Featured Game | New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams

Opening line: Rams -1

This line has since swung in the Saints favor as New Orleans is now a 3-point favorite in this NFC matchup. Not only did Matthew Stafford miss last week's game with the Cardinals due to a concussion that may also muddy up his status for this game, but Cooper Kupp suffered an ankle injury that is expected to sideline him for some time. While the L.A. offense deals with several big injuries, the New Orleans offense is struggling to find its footing, managing just 10 points in a loss to the Steelers on Sunday. The Saints are 1-4 ATS over their last five games, while the Rams own a 2-8-1 ATS record in their last 11. 

Lions (3-6) at Giants (7-2) 

Featured Game | New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions

Opening line: Giants -4

This line has only shifted a tad as New York now sits as a 3.5-point favorite. Both of these clubs came out on the winning end of things in Week 10 with the Giants running over the Texans while Detroit fended off Justin Fields and the Bears. New York has been one of the surprise teams of the season as they've jumped out to a 7-2 record. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 7-2 ATS on the year. Detroit is 2-2 ATS on the road this season but has played the NFC well as they are 10-3 in their last 13 games against a conference foe.  

Raiders (2-7) at Broncos (3-6) 

Featured Game | Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Opening line: Broncos -2

Denver is now a 3-point favorite over the Raiders, but that may say more about where things stand in Las Vegas than they do with the Broncos turning the tides on their season. The Raiders had arguably their most embarrassing loss of the season on Sunday as the Colts and Saturday -- who had no prior collegiate or NFL coaching experience coming into this game -- beat them at home 25-20. Las Vegas is now 3-6 ATS on the season and that includes a 1-4 ATS mark on the road. As for the Broncos, they managed just 10 points in a loss to the Titans and the offense still looks disjointed. They are 1-3 ATS at home this season, so something will need to give between these AFC West rivals. 

Cowboys (6-3) at Vikings (8-1) 

Featured Game | Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys

Opening line: PK

After opening as a pick'em, Dallas is now a 2-point road favorite against the Vikings in what is a heavyweight NFC showdown on deck in Minnesota. Both of these teams went into overtime in their respective games last week but came out with different results. Minnesota was able to fend off the Bills to pull out the win while the Cowboys couldn't put away the Packers at Lambeau. That loss (and inability to cover) moved Dallas to 2-2 ATS on the season on the road. However, Minnesota is 2-2 ATS at home this year, so that could be looked at as a push. The Cowboys have rebounded nicely following losses as of late as they are 4-0 ATS after their last four SU defeats. They'll look to give the Vikings their first ATS loss in over a month as they head into this game 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games. 

Bengals (5-4) at Steelers (3-6) 

Featured Game | Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Opening line: Bengals -5.5

Cincinnati is now a 5-point favorite as they gear up to go into Pittsburgh for an AFC North showdown. This is the second time that these division rivals have faced one another but each is considerably different than when Pittsburgh beat them in Week 1. The Steelers now have rookie Kenny Pickett in at quarterback and the Bengals are still without wideout Ja'Marr Chase.  The Bengals were on the bye in Week 10, but have been a good bet this season, owning a 6-3 ATS record. That includes a 3-2 ATS mark on the road. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh pulled off the upset against the Saints at home as their defense held them to just 10 points. They are now 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Opening line: Chiefs -5.5

Kansas City is now a 7-point road favorite against the Chargers. The Chiefs have solidified themselves as the top threat in the AFC and Patrick Mahomes is playing at an MVP level. He just threw for four touchdowns in the win over Jacksonville. As for the Charges, their offense desperately misses the likes of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who have both been sidelined due to injury. They managed just 16 points in a loss to the 49ers on Sunday night. If those two wideouts are still sidelined for this game, we may be looking at a much different showdown than the one we saw in Week 3 when the Chiefs rallied to beat L.A., 27-24. While Kansas City has been arguably the best team in the AFC, they haven't been a great club to bet on. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games and are 1-4 ATS against clubs with a winning record. However, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles. 

49ers (5-4) at Cardinals (4-6), Monday 

Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

Opening line: 49ers -5.5

San Francisco is now a 7.5-point favorite for this international matchup in Mexico City. Both the Niners and Cardinals were able to notch wins in Week 10, but Arizona's may have been more impressive as they had to turn to Colt McCoy with Kyler Murray injured. Naturally, Murray's status will be worth monitoring throughout the week. If he plays, this line may move back under the touchdown threshold. San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against the NFC West but is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with the Cardinals. Arizona is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against division opponents. 

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